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Gold Recorded a More Significant Increase in the Price

In the first six months of 2011, gold recorded a more significant increase in the price, compared to other minerals. Analysts predicted that the price of the commodity would be corrected late 2011. In fact, early August, gold carved again another history with the highest price hike. Would the commodity continue to record price hike significantly or decrease? The condition in the United States is highly decisive.

In the January – June 2011 period, the price of gold rose by six percent and was closed at a level of US$1,500/troy ounce late June 2011. In the second quarter of 2011, the price of the precious metal increased by five percent.

The price of gold in the first half of 2011 was in sharp contrast to other commodities, which encountered price decrease. Tin was corrected by four percent, nickel price decreased by five percent and coal price also dropped by five percent.

Interestingly, even though the price of gold moved upward in the first half of 2011, even late year, Mega Capital Indonesia (MCI) predicts that the price of the precious metal would decrease from the previous year level.

The price of gold increased by 30% last year and is predicted to decrease by 16.8% to US$ 1,020/troy ounce this year, from the average price of US$ 1,227/ troy ounce in 2010.

Analysis by MCI shows that the average price of gold rose with CAGR +22.5% from US$ 445/troy ounce in 2005 to US$ 1,227/troy ounce in 2010. In the five years to come, 2010-2015, the price of gold is predicted to decrease with CAGR -2% to US$ 1,109/troy ounce.

However, demand for the precious metal rebounded after signal shows that US economy would slow down because of debt issue. The condition encouraged investors to take safe position by investing in gold sector as safe haven.

The demand for gold remained kept increasing after rating institute Standard & Poor's revised downward the rating of the United States to AA+ from AAA because of political uncertainties, rising expense on debts as well as negative outlook.